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Prediction: Global Riots One Year Away?In 2011, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute (CSI) released a paper [1] presenting a model for understanding (and ultimately predicting) the social unrest that rocked countries such as Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt [2]. Of the data analyzed, the principal factor influencing said unrest was determined to be the
food price index.That's a pretty simple concept. If one of your most basic needs was threatened, what would
you do? To quote the MIT Technology Review's explanation of the paper [3], “This isn't rocket science. It stands to reason that people become desperate when food is unobtainable. It's often said that any society is three square meals from anarchy.”
These models have other complex implications around the world, such as in the financial markets. Another paper from 2010, titled “Predicting economic market crises using measures of collective panic” [4], shows that the economic crisis (and other singe-day panics in the market) in the United States were predictable events that relied on the relatively volatile sociological phenomenon of
uncertainty and
nervousness -- which makes some of the original paper's assertions even more interesting. Most notably:
“Both factors in food prices can be linked directly to recent US governmental actions. Speculator activity has been enhanced by deregulation of the commodities markets that exempted dealers from trading limits, and subsidies and other policies have been central to the growth of ethanol conversion.”
Food for thought.
[1]:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455v1.pdf[2]:
http://www.globalissues.org/article/792/mideast-north-africa-unrest[3]:
http://www.technologyreview.com/view/425019/the-cause-of-riots-and-the-price-of-food/[4]:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.2620v1.pdf
Attachments
We Are Now One Year Away From Global Riots, Complex Systems Theorists Say | Motherboard
What’s the number one reason we riot? The plausible and justifiable motivations of trampled-upon humanfolk are many—poverty, oppression, disenfranchisement, etc—but the big one is more primal than any...
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Prediction: Global Riots One Year Away?In 2011, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute (CSI) released a paper [1] presenting a model for understanding (and ultimately predicting) the social unrest that rocked countries such as Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt [2]. Of the data analyzed, the principal factor influencing said unrest was determined to be the
food price index.That's a pretty simple concept. If one of your most basic needs was threatened, what would
you do? To quote the MIT Technology Review's explanation of the paper [3], “This isn't rocket science. It stands to reason that people become desperate when food is unobtainable. It's often said that any society is three square meals from anarchy.”
These models have other complex implications around the world, such as in the financial markets. Another paper from 2010, titled “Predicting economic market crises using measures of collective panic” [4], shows that the economic crisis (and other singe-day panics in the market) in the United States were predictable events that relied on the relatively volatile sociological phenomenon of
uncertainty and
nervousness -- which makes some of the original paper's assertions even more interesting. Most notably:
“Both factors in food prices can be linked directly to recent US governmental actions. Speculator activity has been enhanced by deregulation of the commodities markets that exempted dealers from trading limits, and subsidies and other policies have been central to the growth of ethanol conversion.”
Food for thought.
[1]:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455v1.pdf[2]:
http://www.globalissues.org/article/792/mideast-north-africa-unrest[3]:
http://www.technologyreview.com/view/425019/the-cause-of-riots-and-the-price-of-food/[4]:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.2620v1.pdf
Attachments
We Are Now One Year Away From Global Riots, Complex Systems Theorists Say | Motherboard
What’s the number one reason we riot? The plausible and justifiable motivations of trampled-upon humanfolk are many—poverty, oppression, disenfranchisement, etc—but the big one is more primal than any...
Replies are automatically detected from social media, including Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. To add a comment, include a direct link to this post in your message and it'll show up here within a few minutes.
Prediction: Global Riots One Year Away?In 2011, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute (CSI) released a paper [1] presenting a model for understanding (and ultimately predicting) the social unrest that rocked countries such as Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt [2]. Of the data analyzed, the principal factor influencing said unrest was determined to be the
food price index.That's a pretty simple concept. If one of your most basic needs was threatened, what would
you do? To quote the MIT Technology Review's explanation of the paper [3], “This isn't rocket science. It stands to reason that people become desperate when food is unobtainable. It's often said that any society is three square meals from anarchy.”
These models have other complex implications around the world, such as in the financial markets. Another paper from 2010, titled “Predicting economic market crises using measures of collective panic” [4], shows that the economic crisis (and other singe-day panics in the market) in the United States were predictable events that relied on the relatively volatile sociological phenomenon of
uncertainty and
nervousness -- which makes some of the original paper's assertions even more interesting. Most notably:
“Both factors in food prices can be linked directly to recent US governmental actions. Speculator activity has been enhanced by deregulation of the commodities markets that exempted dealers from trading limits, and subsidies and other policies have been central to the growth of ethanol conversion.”
Food for thought.
[1]:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455v1.pdf[2]:
http://www.globalissues.org/article/792/mideast-north-africa-unrest[3]:
http://www.technologyreview.com/view/425019/the-cause-of-riots-and-the-price-of-food/[4]:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.2620v1.pdf
Attachments
We Are Now One Year Away From Global Riots, Complex Systems Theorists Say | Motherboard
What’s the number one reason we riot? The plausible and justifiable motivations of trampled-upon humanfolk are many—poverty, oppression, disenfranchisement, etc—but the big one is more primal than any...
Replies are automatically detected from social media, including Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. To add a comment, include a direct link to this post in your message and it'll show up here within a few minutes.
Prediction: Global Riots One Year Away?In 2011, researchers at the Complex Systems Institute (CSI) released a paper [1] presenting a model for understanding (and ultimately predicting) the social unrest that rocked countries such as Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt [2]. Of the data analyzed, the principal factor influencing said unrest was determined to be the
food price index.That's a pretty simple concept. If one of your most basic needs was threatened, what would
you do? To quote the MIT Technology Review's explanation of the paper [3], “This isn't rocket science. It stands to reason that people become desperate when food is unobtainable. It's often said that any society is three square meals from anarchy.”
These models have other complex implications around the world, such as in the financial markets. Another paper from 2010, titled “Predicting economic market crises using measures of collective panic” [4], shows that the economic crisis (and other singe-day panics in the market) in the United States were predictable events that relied on the relatively volatile sociological phenomenon of
uncertainty and
nervousness -- which makes some of the original paper's assertions even more interesting. Most notably:
“Both factors in food prices can be linked directly to recent US governmental actions. Speculator activity has been enhanced by deregulation of the commodities markets that exempted dealers from trading limits, and subsidies and other policies have been central to the growth of ethanol conversion.”
Food for thought.
[1]:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1108.2455v1.pdf[2]:
http://www.globalissues.org/article/792/mideast-north-africa-unrest[3]:
http://www.technologyreview.com/view/425019/the-cause-of-riots-and-the-price-of-food/[4]:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1102.2620v1.pdf
Attachments
We Are Now One Year Away From Global Riots, Complex Systems Theorists Say | Motherboard
What’s the number one reason we riot? The plausible and justifiable motivations of trampled-upon humanfolk are many—poverty, oppression, disenfranchisement, etc—but the big one is more primal than any...
Replies are automatically detected from social media, including Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. To add a comment, include a direct link to this post in your message and it'll show up here within a few minutes.
Money is not wealth; it is only an accounting of available economic energy. A money based directly upon energy, therefore, is a pure analog.
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The Blockchain-mania is real here at
#Money2020. Lots of buzzwords being tossed around, but little discussion on global economic realities.
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RT @
martindale: Money is not wealth; it is only an accounting of available economic energy. A money based directly upon energy, therefore, …
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Because bitcoin is environmentally damaging. It relies wasting on immense amounts of cpu cycles, and thus energy.
Because it's a fixed money supply, which carries a lot of economic problems. (There's a reason a lot of libertarians love bitcoin - it's essentially the gold standard, rehashed)
Not to mention its technical flaws - sybil attacks, an ever-growing ledger that is becoming unmanageably large, amongst others.
Bitcoin is a great idea, but it's a prototype for a digital currency.
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+Lisa Way Good point. Capitalism is merely the right to own property. Free Markets, Libertarianism, Austrian Economics, and Right-Anarchism simply have shared ground and tend to go well together, but are importantly different things like Physics, Engineering, or Mathematics.
I think the idea that Capitalism and Self-Ownership are inseparable is a powerful idea that is in the heart of every person that came to the US with NOTHING looking or a better life. Too bad so many people born here don't understand that.
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After a year and a half working with some of the smartest and most competent engineers I've ever met, it's time for me to part ways with BitPay. I've had the opportunity to be deeply involved in the design, implementation, and deployment of some incredible technologies, but we're turning a page in the story of Bitcoin's rise and it's time to start exploring the new chapter.
BitPay continues to paint an incredibly compelling picture as to what the decentralized future looks like – we worked on some incredibly far-reaching and massively impactful ideas, including:
- [ChainDB][chaindb], a distributed database backed exclusively by the Bitcoin blockchain.
- [Copay][copay], a truly decentralized wallet & identity management platform.
- [BitAuth][bitauth], a secure authentication mechanism for peers on the web, using
the `k1` curve.
- [Impulse][impulse], a method of securing zero-confirmation transactions.
- [Foxtrot][foxtrot], a completely encrypted data transmission network.
- [Bitcore][bitcore], a library of common software functionality to glue everything together.
You might notice a few common themes. Let me point out the two most important.
Firstly, that everything here is open source (with the notable exception of ChainDB). Open source, and more importantly [free software][free software], is a very big deal to me. Prior to joining BitPay, I was [open sourcing education][coursefork], [contributing to open source software](https://github.com/martindale), and [speaking on the importance of open source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iuYLWdG-lP0). Some of the things I'm most proud of are the things _other_ people built with the things _we_ gave away – _that's_ the real power of open source.
Secondly, that everything here is based on Bitcoin, not some alternative blockchain. BitPay was a firm believer in Bitcoin as the exclusive platform that would secure the post-fiat era, and that belief has held strongly with me before and after my departure. Until a more compelling alternative to Bitcoin emerges,
One of the other exciting things to come out of BitPay was the emergence of [DECENTRALIZE][decentralize], which we formed last fall with a few of our fellow employees. DECENTRALIZE has become [an acclaimed content source][cointelegraph:decentralize] in the latest resurgence of decentralized thinking, and now it gets to be a much bigger priority for me.
Before I joined BitPay, I'd put a lot of work into [Maki][maki], a framework for making full-stack application development significantly easier. Maki took a bit of a back-burner position while I was focusing on my work at BitPay, so I'll be redoubling my efforts to see that vision through. In fact, I think now's as good a time as any to share that vision.
To that end, I'm starting a new project named Fabric. I'd like to entirely eliminate centralized servers on the Internet and catalyze the development of an entirely new class of economic actor. More details soon.
As we embark on our next journey, let's always remember the carefully selected input used to create [the Genesis Block][genesis]:
> The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks
[chaindb]: https://bitpay.com/chaindb.pdf
[copay]: https://copay.io/
[bitauth]: https://github.com/bitpay/bitauth
[impulse]: https://impulse.is/
[foxtrot]: https://github.com/bitpay/foxtrot
[bitcore]: https://bitcore.io
[decentralize]: https://decentralize.fm
[free software]: http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/free-sw.en.html
[coursefork]: https://coursefork.org/
[maki]: https://maki.ericmartindale.com/
[cointelegraph:decentralize]: http://cointelegraph.com/news/114496/leaders-in-bitcoin-broadcasting-pandoras-box-is-open-and-theres-no-going-back
[genesis]: https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Genesis_blockReplies are automatically detected from social media, including Twitter, Facebook, and Google+. To add a comment, include a direct link to this post in your message and it'll show up here within a few minutes.
